Weather Forecast: Another match at home in which it will be raining. This is the 4th match in a row in which FC Ryukyu will be playing in wet conditions. It looks to be around 80 degrees for most of the match with an 70% chance of rain. Assemble the Poncho Army once more!
Introduction
FC Ryukyu enter Match Day 21 having suffered 2 defeats in a row, 3 if you count the Emperor’s cup. Tochigi were entering this match winless over the past 2 months but they were able to pull off a victory against Yamagata during the Emperor’s Cup mid-week. Both sides will want to leave this match with maximum points so this maybe a very cagey match with both sides wanting to to get out in front early. Keep in mind, Tochigi need the 3 points to start pushing themselves clear of the bottom whereas FC Ryukyu want to keep a nice 11-12-point buffer between them and the “drop zone.”
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC are struggling side who do not create many opportunities that can generate a lot of goals. They have only scored 3 times during the past 5 matches and were shut out in 3 of them. No single player really jumped off the screen during the preview so I had a hard time determining who the play makers are in the Tochigi squad.
Tochigi’s last match against Ehime saw them concede two late goals, within the last 5 minutes of the game, in what was one of those “6-point” matches that are so crucial to teams at the bottom of the table. In that match, they were able to convert one PK for a goal at the end of the first half but failed to convert the second PK at the 73 minute mark which could of drastically changed the trajectory for the match. They then had a near miss a couple of minutes later only too see them concede two headed goals by Ehime. In each instance there seemed to be a lot of ball watching but little man marking in the box by the Tochigi defense.
Bottom line, Tochigi are a side that struggle to produce in the attack and can be broken down at the back by better attacking sides. They, much like FC Ryukyu, have not had a lot breaks go their way this season and FC Ryukyu could’ve been in the same situation Tochigi currently find themselves in if things hadn’t broken our way in some key matches.
Players to Watch
#9 FW Masashi Oguro. Tochigi’s top goal scorer this season with 5 goals and 2 assists. Oguro is returning from injury, possibly slowly, so he may only feature as a substitute this week. Hopefully that is the case as Tochigi are a different side when Oguro is in the lineup. All 3 of Tochigi’s wins came when Ogura played and during his absence, Tochigi tied 3 times while losing 4. They were only able to score 4 goals in his absence (6 matches).
#10 MF Kazuki Nishiya. Has tallied 4 goals and 1 assist for Tochigi. May possess some speed that could trouble the Ryukyu defenders but hard to tell from limited game film. Plays LM/LFWD behind the striker in Tochigi’s formation.
#37 MF Akira Hamashita. Leads Tochigi in assists with 3. Plays down the right side behind the striker.
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu are at a crossroads for their season. They are coming off of two heavy defeats that saw the side concede 8 goals. The strange part is they conceded all 8 of these goals in a row before adding 2 of their own at the end of the Nagasaki match. They’ve steadily increased their goal tally each of the past 3 matches but that has come at the cost of conceding 10 goals during the past 3 matches that saw their goal differential dropping into the negative for the first time all year. FC Ryukyu will need a combination of points and goal difference to ensure safety this year and that cannot be understated.
I worry that FC Ryukyu committed too many of the starters to the mid-week Emperor’s Cup matchup where Tochigi only started their FWD #19 Oshima. This signals to me that Ogura is probably match fit and ready to take back his starting position up front. I am concerned over the mid-week matchup lineup selection because FC Ryukyu will need to control a lot of the possession in this game and that could be difficult on tired legs. I have my own views on the Emperor’s Cup but I am glad that FC Ryukyu are out of that tournament and able to focus solely on the remainder of the J2 season.
Whether FC Ryukyu are dealing with a bevy of injures to reserve players or some players are just struggling for form, nothing indicates to me that FC Ryukyu have a lot of depth to this squad. It is strange where some players feature, flash a bit of quality, and then disappear for long stretches of time without any word as to why. Perfect examples are the disappearance of Uehara after the Yokohama match early last month and now the reemergence of Koizumi in the Emperor’s Cup lineup when he’s been off the substitute list for so long. I am not sure if Higuchi is preferring to stay with the players he knows and trusts, and that means shuffling the lineup with only the 13-14 players we’ve seen all season, or there is something going on in the FC Ryukyu squad that we are not privy too.
FC Ryukyu should view this as a must win, winnable match at home against a struggling Tochigi side that is looking to claw their way out of the bottom. The fact is, 2 goals by FC Ryukyu could be the difference on the day as the visitor’s do not score that many goals, the question remains, can we get there without conceding 2 of our own?
Injuries
FC Ryukyu: #5FB Tokumoto. Tokumoto has picked up a new injury to his MCL during his recovery from an ankle injury last month. The new MCL injury will sideline Tokumoto for an additional 3-4 weeks but doesn’t seem to be as serious as the MCL injury that Nishioka may have been dealing with earlier in the season that saw him miss upwards of 8 weeks.
Tochigi SC: #20 MF Yudai Iwama. He looked as if he was a regular starter for Tochigi this season before he tore his ACL which will see him miss the rest of the season.
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
1. Dominate the possession battle. Tochigi has alternated between a 3-4-3 and 4-4-2 formation for the last few weeks and neither has really produced the “spark” the manager was aiming for. They have conceded 8 times over the span of 5 weeks and only scored 3 goals. FC Ryukyu need to control the pace of this match with large amounts of possession to further reduce the already few attempts Tochigi produces each match.
2. Cap off drives with goals. Ryukyu are averaging better than 50% possession over their past few matches but all that possession hasn’t led to a massive increase in goals. Ryukyu have scored 6 goals over the past 3 matches but always run the risk of conceding when they commit so much of their defense into the attack. FC Ryukyu can put this game out of reach very quickly with 2 first half goals.
3. Crowd the front of the Tochigi goal on all set pieces. Tochigi have let in a few “cheap goals” in the past few matches and it could be contributed to the large amounts of traffic, and probably confusion, in front of the Tochigi Goal Keeper. Whether this stems from poor communication among the Tochigi defenders, the constant switching of the defensive back line formations, defenders being timid or just bad luck it really doesn’t matter as it is a weakness that should be exploited by FC Ryukyu.
4. Play sound football. This means crisp, accurate passes to unlock the Tochigi defense, reducing wasteful turnovers while in possession and stopping the goal scoring tear our opponents have been on as of late. This last key could be the overall keys to every match but are things that FC Ryukyu need to execute in order to see out tough matches and earn 3 points.
Match Prediction
FC Ryukyu average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded at home whereas Tochigi average a paltry .60 goals scored on the road while conceding an average of 1.00 goals. FC Ryukyu over Tochigi 2-1.
Conclusion.
The match this weekend should not be considered an “easy win” for FC Ryukyu despite the standings in the table and the recent performance of Tochigi. I believe these two sides are more similar than the standings indicate (refer to the side by side comparison table above). FC Ryukyu have struggled mightily against teams at the bottom of the table and maybe thats because FC Ryukyu cannot deal with the zero sum approach many lower sides adopt. FC Ryukyu have lost to JEF Chiba, F.C. Gifu and Kagoshima when they were at or very near the bottom of the table and have only drawn against Renofa when they were near the bottom of the table earlier this year.
Tochigi, much like FC Ryukyu, have some signature wins and performances against much stronger sides like Reysol, Kofu and Omiya. They have been unlucky at times and still haven’t won inside the J2 in about 2 months so they too are targeting this match for 3 points against a struggling FC Ryukyu side.
This will be a “slump busting” game for one of these two sides come the weekends end. FC Ryukyu are looking to respond by bouncing back from 2 prior losses in a row while Tochigi will want to break their 2 month winless streak and possibly keep pace with the bottom 4 teams if results go a certain way tomorrow. I hope FC Ryukyu take it to Tochigi SC early and grab a resounding win so as to slowly climb back up the table and out of danger, but you never know what to expect with this side so all we can do is get out there and support them.
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