Match Day 19 Preview: (H) FC Ryukyu versus Ventforet Kofu (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium, Kickoff at 1800, 6/22/2019.
Weather Forecast: Thunderstorms starting earlier in the day with scattered thunderstorms throughout the match. It will most likely be raining the whole time during the match so come prepared with ponchos, umbrellas, towels and bags to keep you items dry.
Intro
Kofu enter match day 19 after suffering a 2-0 loss at home to Tokyo Verdy. Kofu looked sluggish in that match and they rarely generated much going forward. FC Ryukyu, on the other hand, enter this match having come from behind twice to Kyoto on the road that saw Ryukyu earn a draw and return home with a point. I initially though this was going to be a very tough match-up for FC Ryukyu to walk away with any points, but the game footage for Kofu tells a different story.
Ventforet Kofu
Kofu come to Okinawa having won 3 out of their last five matches, in convincing fashion mind you, as well as earned a draw against Yamagata by coming from behind twice with one of those goals occurring very late in stoppage time. This team was firing on all cylinders prior to the Verdy match but since then, Kofu have suffered key injuries to their attacking front line.
Against Yamagata, Kofu had to sub off Dudu mid-way through the first half due to what looks to be a dislocated shoulder or damage to one of the ligaments. Dudu didn’t dress for the last match and I am not sure if he’ll be healthy enough to face Ryukyu tomorrow. The following match against Verdy saw the second strike partner up front, Soneda not even dress. That was massive as Soneda and Dudu have accounted for 9 of Kofu’s 26 goals, roughly one third, and pair nicely with Utaka up front. Their absence was very noticeable during the Verdy match as the once potent attack of Kofu has stalled out.
There are basically 3 scenarios facing FC Ryukyu tomorrow. First, if Dudu and Soneda do not dress, then we can expect to see a similar performance against Verdy from Kofu. If either Dudu or Soneda dress, then we can expect a back and forth match and will need to pay very close attention to Utaka. Finally, if both play, then Ryukyu face an uphill battle as these players will be well rested and this is a team that scored 9 goals in the four games prior to the injures. If scenario number one holds true tomorrow, then FC Ryukyu stand a very good chance of taking all 3 points in the match since the Kofu defense is rather poor and they lack any real attack. If either of the last 2 scenarios comes to fruition tomorrow, then FC Ryukyu are in a real tough spot with injuries to Carvajal and Tokumoto, as well as the suspension for Tanaka.
Kofu Players to Watch
I have already mentioned what Dudu and Soneda bring to the table for Kofu so let’s turn our attention to some other notable players in the Kofu squad.
#9 FW Peter Utaka. Leading scorer for Kofu with 8 goals and 1 assist so far this season. He seems to have a penchant for scoring braces as he’s had 3 games this season with 2 goals. He can overpower weaker defenders and will punish any stupid mistakes by the defender during open field challenges for the ball or in 1v1 situations. FC Ryukyu need to know where Utaka is at all times when he is in the 18-yard box.
#18 FW Koichi Sato. Comes on a substitute for most matches but has scored 4 times this season as a sub. More on that later. Can add some height to the Kofu attack and there is an outside shot he starts tomorrow.
#14 MF Shigeru Yokotani. Plays a central/defensive mid fielder role for Kofu and has 3 goals this season.
#39 DF Kenta Uchida. The defender has 3 assists on the season and can take a nice free kick for Kofu. I don’t know if Uchida is also the corner kick taker for Kofu but he can certainly deliver a nice ball into the box.
#26 MF Kazuhiro Sato & #28 MF Yuki Hashizumi. These two make the list as they are the replacements who have filled in for Dudu and Soneda the past 2 matches. Both have started 7 matches this year but do not offer the same upside to the attack that Dudu and Soneda do.
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu are dealing with their own unique challenges this weekend so though it may seem they have the upper hand on paper, in reality, things are probably even between both sides. First, Tokumoto picked up a non-contact ankle injury last week against Kyoto that will see him miss 3-4 weeks. Second, Keita Tanaka will serve a 1 match suspension for the accumulation of yellow cards. This means FC Ryukyu will have to make 2 changes to a starting lineup that was starting to gel and get back to the scoring ways from earlier this season.
Tanaka will most likely be replaced by either Uejo, Kawai or Ochi but I am not sure who will feature on the bench for Ryukyu this week as I haven’t seen Koizumi’s name since Gifu. Tokumoto will be replaced by Fukui which means we will need to dress another defensive player this weekend. I appreciate that Fukui can play both in and outside defense but certainly FC Ryukyu has some real defensive depth issues if they are more willing to move both Fukui and Masutani to the FB position instead of leaving them inside and bringing up reserve FBs. I guess we will not only find out tomorrow but also during the Emperor’s Cup next month.
Aside from the unknown, Ryukyu are coming into the match having drawn twice, lost twice and won once in their last five matches. However, FC Ryukyu are a very difficult team to beat at home, as evidenced by the 30-game home unbeaten streak, and they just play better at the Tapista. Ryukyu’s last few home matches have seen them battle back against Kanazawa, overcome a late goal from Niigata to score one of their own to win and beat the number one team in J2 in Mito. This offers some hope going forward as Ryukyu is making life difficult for the visiting J2 sides.
Key Injuries or Suspensions
FC Ryukyu: MF Keita Tanaka (SUS), GK Danny Carvajal (INJ) & DF Shuhei Tokumoto (INJ)
Ventforet Kofu: FW Dudu (INJ) & MF Yutaka Soneda (INJ)
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
1. Press the Kofu back-line into making mistakes. The Kofu defense is not that great and #22, Yuta Koieda, is a pretty bad CB. FC Ryukyu needs to press the Kofu back-line when they are in possession as they are very unsure of themselves and often make poor decisions that can lead to turnovers . With so much attacking power on Kofu they have yet to learn how to play the ball out from the back and Ryukyu should exploit this weakness. The horrible mistake by the defenders last week against Verdy led directly to Verdy’s second goal.
2. Know where all the Kofu attackers are at, at all times, but especially when they are in or just outside the 18-yard box. The Kofu attackers have the uncanny ability to lose their markers at key times and then score goals. Ryukyu cannot afford to cede an otherwise easily defended goal to Kofu tomorrow. Kofu’s formation allows the squad to crash the box once they gain possession down either flank in the deep ends of the opposition which can then overwhelm the defense. Uesato and Komatsu have to stay on top of this tactic and aide the Ryukyu back line.
3. Attack the Kofu back line with speed and misdirection passes. Koji Suzuki should have his way tomorrow with Kofu defenders so long as Ryukyu feed him quality passes. Kofu defenders don’t seem to mark well which means Ryukyu players should find plenty of space to maneuver inside the Kofu box. Kofu also doesn’t defend corners all that well so this is another opportunity for Ryukyu to get on the front foot.
4. Mark Koichi Sato in the final minutes of the match. Sato has scored an eye popping 4 stoppage time goals this season as a sub. He has earned 3 points for Kofu in those 4 matches since 3 of the games ended in draws. FC Ryukyu must maintain their focus at the end of the match and not allow Sato any time or space in the box.
Match Prediction
If this was the same Kofu squad that was brushing aside opponents from earlier in the season than I would have predicted a loss for FC Ryukyu. However, this is a weakened Kofu side that comes into the match in poor form and lacking any real punch up front outside of Utaka. Sound defending by Ryukyu coupled with a ruthless attack should see Ryukyu prevail tomorrow. FC Ryukyu 2-1 Ventforet Kofu.
Conclusion
FC Ryukyu will once again be playing in less than optimal weather conditions this weekend. Thankfully Ryukyu are becoming accustomed to playing in such poor conditions as this will be at least their 6th time this season that they have had to endure rain and wind in a match. That fact, along with Kofu’s injuries, recent poor form and not so great record for matches started in the evening hours, sets FC Ryukyu up nicely to grab all 3 points at home tomorrow and provide a massive boost to their point tally.
See you all out there tomorrow and let’s do our best to stay dry. Come on Lads!
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