Match Day 18: (H) Kyoto Sanga F.C. vs. FC Ryukyu (A) at the Kyoto Nishikyogoku Athletic Stadium, 6/15/2019 Kickoff at 1900.
Weather Forecast: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s for the match but it is expected to rain all day with thunderstorms starting around 1500 and expected to continue until 2200. Bring your rain jackets, poncho’s, umbrellas and towels as it is going to be nasty weather out there.
Intro
Fresh off their draw with Kanazawa, FC Ryukyu travel to the Kansai area to take on a very powerful Kyoto Sanga side who are returning home after 2 weeks on the road. Sanga come into the match having been decisively beaten by Omiya Ardija but this is a team that swept the J2 League awards for May with Koyamatsu winning the best goal, Sento earning MVP honors and their manager, Nakata, rounding out the trifecta. More on them later. FC Ryukyu’s road struggles are well known at this point and with difficult matches over the next 2 months, any points FC Ryukyu can earn on the road must be viewed as a huge boost for their hopes at staying in the J2 next season. let’s look at how the two teams stack up this season.
Interesting that Kyoto doesn’t score, or concede nearly as many goals at home as they do on the road. Kyoto’s record against teams in the top half of the table also offers a glimmer of hope for FC Ryukyu today.
Kyoto Sanga F.C.
Prior to the loss at Omiya, Sanga had won 4 times and drawn twice in their previous 6 matches. Over the course of the last 6 weeks, Sanga has scored 14 goals and conceded 8. Those numbers represent 60% of to the total amount of goals Sanga has scored on the season as well as 50% of the amount of goals they’ve conceded. If we look at the first 11 weeks of the season for Sanga, the stats tell a very different story. Sanga failed to score in 5 of the first 11 matches with 4 of those shutouts occurring at home. Despite the goal scoring drought, Sanga were still able to earn 4 wins, 3 draws and only suffer 3 losses in those 11 matches. All in all; it means that they weathered the rough storm during the early part of the season, accumulated some nice point tallies along the way, are wracking up the points with what looks to be a very potent attack, all at a crucial time of the season. Basically; they are peaking and present a formidable challenge for FC Ryukyu.
Over the course of the 4 Kyoto matches I viewed for this review; Sanga displayed a penchant for starting fast. For the entire season, Kyoto has scored 13 of their 23 goals in the first half. More importantly, they have conceded 10 of their 16 goals this season in the second half of matches. Furthermore, Sanga have only played 3 matches in which they scored in the first half yet failed to score in the second half and in those matches they have gone 1W1D1L. But it should be noted that they scored first in two of those games whereas against Omiya they did not. Bottom line, FC Ryukyu needs to do all they can to stop Kyoto from scoring in the first half, if they do, then FC Ryukyu have a great shot at earning a point on the day.
Kyoto Sanga Players to Watch
Sanga’s set up plays to the teams strength, which is attacking. The talent up front for Sanga is quite good and the partnering of Ichimi and Koyamatsu looks like one of the most lethal combinations in the J2.
#23 FW Kazunari Ichimi. I was surprised to learn that Ichimi is only 5’10” (181cm) as he seems to play a lot “taller” than his height would indicate. He reminds me a lot of Olivier Giroud from Chelsea in that he is really good at getting the positional advantage over the defender and can get his foot to a ball and direct it into the back of the net. Ichimi is the joint top scorer for Sanga with 5 goals and 2 assists.
#22 MF Tomoya Koyamatsu. The J2 League winner of the best goal of the month for May. This particular player is a one-man wrecking ball at times. I’ve seen him gain possession near or just behind the half way line and then make a very powerful run on net single handed and then score. He is very strong and has good pace which means he will be a huge challenge of any slower, weaker defenders. He isn’t afraid to take all of them on at once and Koyamatsu has 3 goals and 3 assists so far this season.
#14 MF Keiya Sento. Joint top scorer with 5 goals and 2 assists. Plays down the right, along with Miyayoshi and Ishibitsu to form a three headed monster in attack.
#13 FW Takumi Miyayoshi. 1 goal and 3 assists so far this season from a forward position but he can provide excellent service and set up play for Sento and Ichimi.
#30 DF (RB) Yosuke Ishibitsu. The 3rd part to the Kyoto attacking right side. Has 1 goal and 4 assists and that means he is sending quality crosses into the box for the attacking players to get on the other end of and score.
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu were able to earn a draw at home this past weekend against a tough Kanazwa side. Ryukyu were without star goal keeper, Danny Carvajal, but Ishii’s performance was nothing short of excellent and he ultimately allowed FCR to claw back into the match and earn a point. The Ryukyu attack is still sputtering as they’ve only scored multiple goals in one match out of the past 11. This will be a very tough test for FC Ryukyu this week as they face a team that is firing on all cylinders and can light up the score board quickly. Keep in mind, FC Ryukyu have failed to earn a point on the road in the last 4 road matches and those were against teams not nearly as strong as Kyoto.
Keys to FC Ryukyu Victory
Kyoto Sanga represent the type of team FC Ryukyu aspires to be; they can make up for weak defending with a ruthless attack. There are small margins for success for FC Ryukyu this weekend as some of the statistics indicate, but FC Ryukyu are more likely to drop all the points if they concede early against Kyoto.
1. Prevent Kyoto from scoring a 1st half goal. This is a large ask for the entire Ryukyu team but if they can do that, they have a great shot at earning a point on the day. Kyoto have failed to score in the first half in 7 games this season and in those seven matches, only twice did they score a second half goal. The results were 1W3D3L in those 7 matches for Kyoto. On the flip side, when Kyoto score first, and the goal occurs in the first half, they’ve gone on to earn 6 wins and 2 draws in 8 matches. As you can see, FCR must weather the fast start of Kyoto and prevent an early goal for any chance at positive points today.
2. Disrupt the back line of Kyoto. In the matches I watched, this seemed to be the Achilles Heel for Sanga. At times, the defenders lacked concentration, were out of position, would not mark the runs of attacking players and allow attacking players plenty of space to take shots on net in and around the box. Ryukyu will need some heroic efforts from Tanaka and Tomidokoro today if they are going to earn a good result. Ryukyu also needs to use their speed down the flanks to get around the back of the RB/LBs of Kyoto and have the remaining attacking players crash the box as this will confuse the central defenders on Sanga.
3. Score Goals. This is an obvious one but FC Ryukyu own a near even split when it comes to scoring and conceding in both halves. It has been a tale of 2 halves for FC Ryukyu this season and while it seems encouraging that they’ve been able to score 15 goals in the second half, they’ve also conceded 14. This lends credence to the first point that FC Ryukyu are more likely to earn a draw if they do not concede in the first half because they are also more likely to score late in matches. 2 goals would be great so long as they are not wasted in a losing effort. Quality shots on net from distance may prove to be the determining factor for FC Ryukyu today.
Match Prediction
This is one of the toughest road tests to date for FC Ryukyu. We haven’t faced an opponent on the road of this quality since Yamagata and therefore the likely outcome today is a Ryukyu loss. Using the “pain scale” you see at most doctor’s offices, I’ll put it to you like this. On a scale of 1-5, with 1 being the most debilitating pain/result: 1. If Ryukyu lose by 3 goals or more it will be embarrassing, 2. A 2-0 defeat is a very likely outcome and no one would really think different of this since Ryukyu are less than 100% with a reserve keeper in net, 3. 2-1 defeat is a very respectable outcome against a superior opponent, 4. A draw in any form is pure gold and that point will prove valuable, and finally, 5. A win against Kyoto must be considered as the most important J2 victory to date for FC Ryukyu.
Match Predction: Kyoto Sanga 3-1 FC Ryukyu
Conclusion
There is one strange factor to consider in all of this; in the 2 games this season that Kyoto have played that have started after 1800, they are 0-2. Kyoto surrendered 4 goals in those competitions and only scored once. If you factor in the start time of 19:00, that Ryukyu play a majority of their matches at these start times and that this match could be played in sloppy conditions – a situation that Ryukyu has played in multiple times this season and most recently against Kanazawa – these could come together an equal a positive result for Ryukyu today. We will have to wait and see. Enjoy the match where ever you are at and see you soon.
Come on Lads, one time here!
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