Match Day 13: (H) FCR vs Mito Hollyhock (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium, Kickoff at 1800.
Weather Forecast: Partly Cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s all match with a 5% chance of rain. Winds will be calm at 7-mph so all in all it should be comfortable all match.
The Mito “Boa Constrictor” is coming to town this week to take on FC Ryukyu who are looking to keep their home undefeated record intact. These two teams find themselves on two different trajectories at the moment. Mito are on an ascending track having not lost all season while also not surrendering more than one goal in any of their matches. FCR, however, on a downward spiral at the moment as the attack has failed to fire over the course of the last 9 matches which has seen FCR tumble out of the top 6 and into 9th place.
Mito Hollyhock: 1st in J2 on 26 points, 7W5D0L GF14 GA4 Goal Difference of +14 Current Form DWWDW
Typical Formation: 4-4-2
Record vs Common Opponents of FCR: 3W4D
The statistics for Mito are both impressive and staggering. As mentioned above, Mito are still undefeated this season and they have yet to surrender more than one goal in any of their matches. Here is a snapshot of the FCR opponent this week: 1.) Mito have earned 5 wins and 2 draws while playing away from home this season, 2.) Mito have scored 8 goals while conceding only 2 in all road matches, 3.) Mito have scored first in 8 of their matches and in only two instances did those games end in a draw after the opponent scored very late, 4.) Mito has conceded the opening goal of the match only twice all year and they were still able to earn a win and a draw in those games and most impressive, 5.) Mito have shut out the home team 5 times this season while traveling.
So, what does all this mean? Quite simply, Mito chokes the life out of the opponents attack similar to the way a boa constrictor does with their prey. It also means Mito never panics when they are playing from behind and they have the ability to see out tightly contested matches when they have a small lead. This really does not bode well for FC Ryukyu this week since the attack has gone missing since match day 4.
Players to Watch: #32 Atsushi Kurokawa MF & #14 Shintaro Shimizu are the joint top scorers for Mito with 3 goals each.
The entire Back Line of Mito and their GK. It will be something to see if the FCR attack can get going because we will then see an unstoppable force versus an immovable object.
FCR: 9th in J2 on 17 points 4W5D3L GF18 GA15 Goal Difference of +3 Current Form DDLDL
Typical Formation: 4-2-3-1
Record vs Common Opponents of Mito: 2W2D3L
FCR is coming into the match having conceded two late goals on the road against the bottom team in the J2 table at the time, FC Gifu. FC Ryukyu were able to grab an early lead off of a nicely taken shot by Uesato but were unable to net a second goal for the remainder of the match. FC Ryukyu came close on several occasions by hitting the post early but the ball simply didn’t break the way it needed to for FCR on the day.
FCR maintain a perfect 3W3D record at home and they have scored 11 of their 18 goals this season at home while conceding 6 at the #fortressryukyu. As a reminder, FCR are now on their 27th undefeated match dating back to 2017 but this is going to be one of the hardest tests so far to maintain that record.
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory: 1.) Score multiple goals, something they have not done in 9 weeks and something that Mito has never done all season. We have no idea how Mito will react if they concede a second goal and possibly try and chase the game. Mito never panics and by jumping out to a 2 goal lead they may pull themselves apart at the back and allow FCR some running room. Mito are well coached and play really well at the back and it is a monumental ask of the FCR attack to score multiple goals against a superior opponent.
2.) FCR needs to throw everything it has at Mito all match and not worry about the result until it’s over. It is almost cliché to say that FCR will concede a goal in their matches but it is a very likely outcome. FCR should set themselves up to constantly bombard the Mito defense and run them ragged all game. This will open FCR to several counter attacks but a back line of 3, instead of 4, that doesn’t push wing backs up into the attack should be able to cover the Mito counter.
3.) Change the FCR lineup and set up. 3-4-3 with Uejo and Koizumi flanking Suzkui up front, Uesato and Tomidokoro down the middle and Tokumoto and Kawaii out wide. Come out firing with speed from the flanks, quality passes through the middle by Tomidokoro and penetrating runs into the box from Uejo and Koizumi.
4.) Stop mucking about on Free Kicks and Corners. Tomidokoro needs to be more involved in set pieces, period.
Match Prediction. It has proven very challenging the past few weeks to remain positive when it comes to predicting the outcomes of FCR matches. They have faced several inferior opponents yet they either drew or lost those games. The most likely outcome is FCR loses the match 2-0. I cannot see Mito conceding a goal despite the fact that FCR prides themselves on their attacking prowess. Unfortunately, this means the undefeated record will come to a close.
If what I am seeing on twitter is any indication, then I believe Bando will make an appearance at the stadium this week to cover the match. I hope he takes a tour of the grounds and meets and greets some of the fans either prior, during or after the match. See you all out there on Saturday night.
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