Match Day 11 Info: 04/27/2019 (H) FCR vs Machida Zelvia (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium (Comprehensive Park) Kickoff at 19:30.
Weather Forecast: Overcast with temperatures around 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22C) with 11 mph winds expected all game and only dropping down to 71 degrees (21.6C) by the end of the match. There is no rain in the forecast but I would double check the weather before leaving the house.
Match Day 11 sees FCR squaring off at home against old J3 rivals Machida Zelvia. You may recall that Zelvia gained promotion to the J2 after the 2015 season when they defeated Oita Trinita in a home and home series and were the first, and last, J3 team to achieve that feat. The J League has since done away with that format where now the bottom two from J2 and top 2 from J3 are automatically demoted/promoted (promotion still requires a J2 license).
FCR’s historical record against Zelvia is not great. They have only ever faced each other during the 2014 and 2015 seasons in the J3 with Zelvia holding the preponderance of victories at 5 to 1. In fact, Zelvia holds a 16-3 margin of goals scored compared to FCR during those years and I can vividly recall one of the hardest matches I’ve ever had to witness as an FCR fan here in Okinawa that came against Zelvia. It was during the 2014 season and Zelvia traveled to Okinawa City and lambasted FCR 7-1 on our home turf. One of those players responsible for a lot of that damage was Koji Suzuki who netted 19 goals and was the leading goal scorer in J3 that season. Well, all that has changed now as the teams are certainly different from 4 season ago and now it is FCR that has Koji “The Shredder” Suzuki up front leading the attack.
Machida Zelvia: 13th in J2 with 13 points 4W1D5L Goal Difference of -6 Current Form WLDWL
Typical Formation: 4-4-2
Zelvia come into match day 11 having just lost at home to Omiya whereas FCR is also coming off of a loss to Kagoshima last weekend on the road. Zelvia has doubled their goal tally on the season over the past 5 matches bringing their season total to 7, while only conceding 3 during that span compared to their first 5 matches where they allowed 10 goals. Zelvia has begun to solidify themselves at the back beginning with match day 5 against Kagoshima and have turned around an ugly start to the season.
Zelvia have a much better goal scoring record on the road compared to at home but they have also conceded a majority of their goals on the road. Across the 5 road matches Zelvia has played this year they are conceding about 1.5 goals per match. While that sounds promising for the prospects of FCR netting some goals, there was one outlier where Zelvia conceded 6 against Kanazawa early in the season. They have only conceded 1 in their last 3 road matches and I fear that FCR will find a clogged mid field with little space to operate against the Zelvia defensive lines.
I did not see much in the 5 Zelvia games I was able to review on DAZN that leads me to believe FCR should fear the Zelvia attack. It is obvious that they miss a player of Suzuki’s quality up front but that is not to say they don’t have some creative players of their own. What it boils down to is creating chances for those players and this seems to be a weakness of Zelvia this year. During the last five matches, Machida was able to secure victories against Ehime at home, Fukuoka on the road with their lone draw this season occurring against Kofu at home. The losses included the previously mentioned one against Omiya at home and one against Nigata on the road.
It looked like in their most recent victory against Fukuoka that Zelvia may have turned things around with their attack but that wasn’t the case against Omiya the following week where they generated very little. They were done in by a late Utaka goal against Kofu that ultimately led to the draw when they had a momentary lapse in judgment when playing the ball out from the back that resulted in a giveaway to Kofu and the equalizer. Starting with that Kofu match, Zelvia began making some wholesale changes to their lineup to which they continued to tinker with the lineup against Fukuoka. There were no changes to the lineup against Omiya and it is likely, barring any injuries that Zelvia may have picked up against Omiya or during this past week of practice, that FCR will face that same lineup this Saturday, .
Zelvia Players to Watch:
#9 Caymen Togashi FW. Togashi is the leading goal scorer this season for Zelvia with 2. He scored early in the season against Verdy and most recently against Fukuoka.
#32 Hiroki Todaka MF. Todaka’s lone goal this season came against Kofu where he was able to control the ball from a cross with his legs and then take another touch to gain some shooting space from the defenders and deliver a nice strike. He seems to create the most opportunities for Zelvia in the attacking end and despite his diminutive stature, he is a handful to deal with from what I’ve seen on tape. He reminds me of Togashi with his playing style and FCR cannot afford to allow Todaka too much time and space in or around the 18-yard box.
#18 Yuki Okada FW. Has provided 2 assists this season but is very lethal with his passing and is someone who can set players like Togashi and Todaka free on net.
FCR 6th in J2 with 16 points 4W4D2L Goal Difference of +4 Current Form DLDDL
Typical Formation 4-2-3-1
FCR is coming off a deflating road loss to Kagoshima especially since they had so many opportunities to score. The FCR attacks has slowed down mightily since the opening of the season where they were running roughshod over teams on their way to scoring 11 goals in their first 4 matches. FCR has only scored 5 goals in their last 6 matches while conceding 7 and it is obvious that more lineup changes are required to get the attack going again. FCR has had Uejo and Tomidokoro occupy the CAM role behind Suzuki but this has not proven to be effective after the Nakagawa transfer. For one thing, Uejo hasn’t been healthy enough to play a full 90 minutes since he injured his foot against Tokushima and it is baffling the way FCR is using Tomidokoro this year. Yu is lethal when coming in from the left side and unleashing his right foot. He is even in better on free kicks but FCR is selecting Uesato to take the long range FKs with Kazama taking the ones closer to the 18-yard box as we witnessed this past week. Tomidokoro needs to be taking more of these in order to regain the form we saw last season.
While FCR created many chances last week most of them were taken from support personnel and not our 4 attacking front men. Masutani had two golden opportunities but neither amounted to anything and Uesato took the very close FK in the Kagoshima box as a result of a back pass. If you go back to the Renofa match, you can see that FCR is requiring some very late goals to bring matches level. While this is great because it still has earned the squad some points, FCR needs to be getting out on the front foot and scoring first similar to the way they operated at the start of the season.
FCR Keys to Victory:
1.) FCR must overcome Zelvia’s 4-4-2 formation that will inevitably clog the mid-field area and make it difficult for FCR to create chances. As we’ve seen in FCR games this season when opponent’s pack the mid-field with players, FCR is really challenged to create opportunities. This started after we sold Nakagawa which means someone on the FCR squad needs to step up and take over that role. The best way to defeat the 4-4-2 is to make quick changes in direction across the pitch in order to create positional and numerical superiority against Zelvia. If done correctly, FCR should find some space to operate in, or at the very least, space to run into the channels created by dragging the 4-4-2 formation across the pitch in order to cover the mismatch.
2.) FCR needs to start fast, score early and score often. Zelvia has conceded a majority of their goals on the road this season whereas FCR has scored most of their goals at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium. Zelvia have a 2-1 ratio for conceding goals on the road compared to home and the same can be said about FCR’s goals scoring with a 10-5 split that is also a 2-1 advantage at home. Something has to give in this match and FCR needs to be flying all over the pitch by making runs to pull the Zelvia defense apart. Hopefully there is a little “revenge narrative” for Koji Suzuki since Zelvia is his former club and they let him go this past off season. If Koji does score, I doubt that he will celebrate too much since he has spent his entire career at the club up to this season notching 65 goals during that time.
3.) FCR needs to make some lineup changes. I am not sure if we will see the return of Nishioka this week or if Higuchi will try and change the personnel behind Suzuki in an attempt to start generating more forward thrust. This is a perfect opportunity to get a player like Koizumi some playing time and see what he can do in the CAM role. He flashed some nice skills during the draw against Verdy and nearly equalized himself before Uesato brought the game level for FCR. Higuchi could also opt to start Tanaka, as long as he is not injured, in that role to see if he can provide the service that Suzuki desperately requires. I also think FCR needs to be bringing Kawai off the bench later in games so his speed can be used to its full extent by running against the tired legs of the opposing teams defense. This would require a healthy Tanaka and Uejo but is something I hope FCR will explore over the next 2 matches.
Match Prediction: I am split between two reasonable outcomes for this match. I think that this game could see both teams score as evidenced by their track records this season or see out a scoreless draw. First, we know how FCR doesn’t keep many clean sheets and how Zelvia is susceptible to conceding goals on the road that could lead to a 2-1 FCR victory. Second, on the other hand, the solidifying of the Zelvia defense over the past few road games in conjunction with the slowing down of the FCR attack, means we could easily see a 0-0 draw on Saturday.
Against common opponents this season both teams have achieved the same amount of points with Zelvia going 4W3L against those opponents compared to FCR’s 3W3D1L. This basically boils down to these two sides being very similar despite the differences in their overall statistics.
This is an important match for FCR to get going again for two reasons. First, there is only a 4-point difference between FCR and the 14th placed team in the J2 table. A loss on Saturday combined with some unfavorable results around the league could see FCR tumble further down the table. FCR needs to be earning 3 points at home against similar or inferior opponents to keep them out of the relegation scrap at the end of the season. Second, the schedule will get decidedly harder next month and FCR needs to get that elusive 5th win this week. A win that has escaped us since match day 4. FCR shouldn’t care about the top of the table this year as there is no need to concern themselves with promotion as they do not currently have a J1 license. The bottom of the table is of the greatest concern to FCR and therefore their focus should be on doing all they can to avoid that location.
I look forward to seeing all of you out there on Saturday and hopefully seeing our boys achieve victory. I believe there is a ceremony scheduled for Koji Suzuki and how fitting it occurs when Zelvia is in town. Good luck!
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