Match Day Info: 03/30/2019 (H) FCR vs Renofa Yamaguchi FC (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium (Okinawa Comprehensive Park) Kickoff at 1800.
This week’s match-up pits table toppers FCR vs bottom of the table Renofa Yamaguchi FC. The last time these two teams met was during the 2015 J3 season where Renofa beat FCR three times, outscoring the Bengara Boys 11-3, during their march to the J3 title. However, that is in the past and these are two different teams in the 2019 J2 season.
Overall Series Record: Renfoa Yamaguchi FC W3D0L0 – FCR W0D0L3
Weather Forecast: The rain should subside in the early morning giving way to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius) for kickoff. There will be a 10-13 mph wind during the entirety of the match so bring a light jacket. There is only a 5% chance for rain during the game but having lived here for so long, the weather could change quickly so be prepared.
Renofa Yamaguchi FC: 21st in J2; W1D0L4 Current Form: LLWLL Typical Formation 4-1-2-3
The start of the 2019 J2 season saw Renofa lose a hard-fought battle, 2-1, against Kashiwa Reysol at home. Renofa created several chances that game and from the limited highlights I saw on YouTube, it looked to be a very pacey end to end match. I am not sure of the circumstances surrounding the change at GK after this match but Renofa opted to drop #17 Yoshimitsu for #33 Yamada. To be honest, I didn’t see much justification for this so we have to assume that Yoshimitsu got hurt or has been outperformed on the training ground by Yamada.
Yamada’s first start against Kofu is one he would like to forget. He had two howlers that led to two goals for Kofu. The first was at the 2nd minute mark of the game when he was casually attempting to clear the ball from his own end and was closed down by Utaka of Kofu. Yamada really took his sweet time attempting to make this clearance and it allowed Yutaka to make up ground and deflect the ball into the back of the net. Kofu scored shortly thereafter when the two CBs were ripped apart by Utaka who then rounded Yamada and slotted it home. Yamada’s second blunder was similar to his first, he was attempting a clearance, was closed down by the Kofu player, slipped and sent the ball directly to a Kofu player on the edge of the box who easily shot past him and the Renofa player on the goal line. Kofu would score one more time, on what could’ve been called a hand ball, but it didn’t matter as the game was already out of reach for Renofa.
Match day 3 saw Renofa playing in their second consecutive match with a 5-2 score line, but this time they would be on the better end of the outcome against JEF United. JEF United didn’t do itself any favors at home as their GK had his own blunder that led to a Renofa goal and that was quickly followed by a JEF player being sent off for a very poor challenge. However, it took Renofa 33 minutes to add to their score line despite the man advantage. JEF was able to pull within 1 goal of Renofa before an 88th minute corner kick by JEF quickly went the other direction and Renofa scored. The play was one of those ones where JEF had committed so many men forward in hopes of tying the match but got caught on the break with their goalie way out of position because most of the JEF outfield players where in the box for the corner. The Renofa player took a long shot from just over the halfway line that bounced off the post and rolled back to the waiting Renfoa player who tapped it in. Renofa would score one more time at the feet of #4 Takai who scored a brace on the day.
Versus Ehime on Match Day 4 all the action took place in the first half. All 3 goals scored by both sides occurred within the first 36 minutes where Renofa conceded the first two on a PK and a breakdown at the back. Renofa’s goal was also a breakdown at the back by Ehime but other than that, there was not much in this game.
Finally, Renofa’s most recent match versus Tochigi was the first game this season that Renofa was unable to score. Tochigi capitalized on the 3rd PK given up by Renofa this season and that was is it as far as goals for this match. Renofa did make one major change to their lineup this game in that they dropped the Center Back pairing of #15 Doston & #13 Kusumoto in exchange for #49 Kikuchi & #2 Tsuboi. Doston and Kusumoto have been brutal all year and they were constantly being beat and exposed down the middle so it was obvious that the coach needed to make a change. While Renofa didn’t concede a goal from open play during the match, the CBs performed only slightly better than the original pair. There were a couple of occasions where the Tochigi forwards were able to get behind the Renofa CBs but nothing came of these opportunities.
Renofa Yamaguchi Players to Watch:
#24: Keita Yamahita FW. Leading goal scorer for Renofa with 3 so far this season. He had a brace against Kofu as well as one against JEF but he also moves very well in and around the 18-yard box. He’s probably the one-man FCR needs to mark throughout the match.
#4 Kazumi Takai MF: Second leading scorer on the team with 2. These goals came at the end of the match versus JEF so I wouldn’t read too much into it other than the man can finish when called upon.
#19 Masato Kudo FW. Has one goal so far this season and it was against Ehime. Kudo has started the last 3 matches and adds a nice attacking element to the Renofa front 3. He takes quality shots on net so FCR will need to keep a close eye on him in and around the box.
#7 Paulo Junichi Tanaka MF. Seems to be one of their best play-makers and also takes quality shots on net.
#33 Genki Yamada GK. Genki was wearing a knee brace or his knee or it was heavily taped this past match. If that is the case this week it is safe to assume his movement will be hindered and FCR needs to test him early and often. Hard shots that require him to get low may prove very beneficial to FCR.
#15 Doston & #13 Takumi Kusumoto CB. If one, or both, of these guys are in then FCR should feast. Their play was so bad over the first 4 matches that there had to be wholesale changes at the back with both being swapped out. Again, if they are in, then there will be goals.
FC Ryukyu: 1st in J2; W4D1L0 Current Form: WWWWD Typical Formation 4-2-3-1
FCR comes in to this match as the overall leader in J2. They were able to earn a hard-fought point on the road against Yamagata while contending with harsh weather and long travel. FCR did not score from open play that match but rather relied on a twice taken PK by #9 Suzuki for their loan goal. Yamagata was able to equalize at the end of the match in the 88th minute in what could be called a busted play where the ball took several awkward bounces and deflections before it fell right on the head of a rising Yamagata player in the 6 yard box.
The prior 5 matches for FCR is really a tale of two teams. In the first 3 matches FCR scored 9 goals and their movement was excellent. Teams were finding life difficult handling the FCR thrust forward and it allowed the team many open running lanes and passing lanes. The last two matches however, the attacking prowess FCR once displayed has taken a back seat to a more controlled, defensive minded approach.
I don’t believe this was a tactical change on the part of FCR but rather just the way the past two opponents execute their game plan. Tokushima enjoys large spells of possession and Yamagata severely limits the amount of opportunities for their opponent. Both of those teams really crowded the MF and made it difficult for FCR to navigate out of that traffic and towards the net. This is not going to be the case with Renofa as there was nothing in the tape that I saw that indicates this team can stop the attack of FCR.
FCR Keys to Victory: 1. An absolutely unrelenting, unforgiving attack straight at the back line of Renofa. This game sets up very well for #9 Suzuki to feast in front of goal. However, that will require the FCR MF combination of #11 Tanaka, #14 Uejo and #10 Tomidokoro finding open passing lanes to set Suzuki free as well as provide quality service to the FCR striker. This can be done as the CBs are the weakest part of the Renofa defense. Renofa also concedes a lot of PKs because their defenders are out of position and are forced to make rash challenges to stop the pressure. Quick movements in the box by FCR could also prove fruitful.
2. Test the Renofa GK. I mentioned earlier that he may have an injury that could limit his lateral and/or vertical movement. Anyone who has played sports knows that there are some injuries you can play through but you will be limited physically and sometimes mentally out of fear of making the injury worse during the game. Press him every time he has the ball as he’s displayed his penchant for making bad decisions as well as turning the ball over way to easy.
Game Prediction: If FCR can control the pace of the game and continually test the Renofa GK then there is no reason FCR cannot win this game. FCR enters a very tough stretch of fixtures in a rather short period of time this week as they will play 3 matches within 8 days that includes traveling during the mid-week. This means the FCR manager must make a few tough calls in these games because the depth and talent of the FCR squad are sure to be tested this week.
I wrote earlier this week about sometimes getting ahead of yourself or setting expectations too high when viewing the fixture list. It is perfectly acceptable to do this as a fan because it’s just what we do, but for the club it is a very different story. As Ben Maxwell from “The J-Talk Podcast” (@JTalkPod) so rightly pointed out this past week,” the J2 is a marathon and not a sprint,” and therefore FCR cannot afford a trip-up this early that leads to them pressing for points and looking up to see that half the table has leaped over them in a matter of weeks. FCR probably has noticed that they are playing the bottom two teams in succession followed by the overall second place team in Kashiwa Reysol. The fixture lineup couldn’t be better but it will require not falling victim to the early “trap games” and then the titanic fixture next weekend.
Often there are times in sports when a far superior team falls victim to a lesser team because there is a much stronger team on the horizon. This is considered a “trap game.” This could occur because the powerful team has either overlooked or played down to the level of their competition and in the case of FCR, there are 2 such matches preceding the Kashiwa match. FCR needs to view each match separately and not as a combination of all three. It is critical that FCR continue to win points this early in the season and not concern themselves with the overall standings in J2.
Hopefully FCR can jump out to a big enough lead against Renofa and be able to rest certain key players. I have little doubt that there will be lineup changes over the first 2 matches because all 11 players cannot play all 3 matches. It comes down to a matter of where FCR thinks they can get maximum points versus their opponent. One strategy would be to target the Renofa and JEF matches and then rest players against Kashiwa so as not to risk injury. The other is to rest against JEF and come back with the same lineup against Kashiwa. Either works and it truly depends on the manager. As a side note, while JEF is bottom of the table and in turmoil with the recent managerial change, they could also bust out in a big way by taking advantage of the short week fixture at home against FCR. JEF had a lot of fight in their last match despite losing and I wouldn’t view them as “cellar dwellers” all season.
In closing, I want FCR to come out and pummel Renofa at home for the above reasons as well as because it would represent another historic moment for this club. 25 matches unbeaten at home is such an honor and would mean so much to FCR and its supporters. As always, I’ll be in the north end of the stadium right next to the England Flag so stop on over and say hi. See you at the #fortressryukyu!
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